Nigerian Analyst Sees Close Contest in Ruling Party Primary

A Nigerian political analyst has told VOA the possibility exists for either Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan or former Vice President Atiku Abubakar to be chosen as the presidential candidate for the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
Tuesday, the PDP certified three candidates for Thursday's scheduled presidential primary.
President Goodluck Jonathan will compete against former vice president Atiku Abubakar and veteran politician Sarah Jibril to be the PDP’s candidate in the scheduled April election.
Professor Kabiru Mato, chair of the political science department at the University of Abuja, said the PDP made a wise decision in choosing President Jonathan and former Vice President Abubakar to compete in the primary.
“Given the nation’s political temperature, it would be unwise for the party to disqualify any of its contenders, especially the two most serious ones, among them the incumbent, President Goodluck Jonathan, and his challenger, Atiku Abubakar. So, I think it’s not an issue that came to anybody in Nigeria as a surprise,” he said.
Mato said both candidates stand a chance of being chosen as the PDP’s flag bearer during Thursday’s primary.
“Each of the two major candidates, in my view, has ample opportunity and chance of striking a major political victory, especially in the last hours leading up to the primary. So, the pendulum can go either way. I think it would depend to a great extent on what advantages the two major candidates would take in the minutes and hours leading up to the party primary,” Mato said.
He said both President Jonathan and former vice president Abubakar enjoy certain advantages.
“The first thing is that a candidate wins by enjoying a simple majority of votes. Basically, there are three aspirants, but only two of them are serious aspirants. What I think is very essential is the factor of incumbency, which I think President Jonathan might enjoy. But, also, another factor is regional sympathy and political sophistication, which Abubakar possesses. But certainly, each of the candidates has almost similar chances of taking the party’s ticket,” Mato said.
The PDP has a custom of rotating power between the mostly Muslim north and largely Christian south every two terms. Mr. Jonathan is from the south, but he became president when Umaru Yar'adua, a northern Muslim, died in office.
Some in Nigeria had protested Mr. Jonathan's candidacy. But, on Monday, a Nigerian court threw out a suit brought by three PDP members to try to stop Mr. Jonathan from running.
Mato said the rotating presidency issue could sway a number of northern votes in favor of Abubakar.
“That’s one of the factors that, in my view, could sway quite a number of northern votes toward Abubakar because, truly, the question of rotation and zoning of political offices, especially the presidency, has always been an integral part of the PDP constitution,” Mato said.
Mato said he hopes the PDP convention committee that would be running Thursday’s presidential primary election would be transparent.

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Nigerian President Signs Off on Election Timetable

Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan signed an amended constitution Monday, cementing the legal framework for presidential, parliamentary and state governor elections in April.
Lawmakers initially passed an amendment bringing polls forward to January, but then voted to push them back again to April after the electoral commission said the timetable was too tight.
The Wall Street Journal newspaper reported that thousands of delegates across the country are set to cast their votes in the ruling party's presidential primary Thursday, kicking off a contest to run Africa's most populous nation. The People's Democratic Party primary will pit Mr. Jonathan against Atiku Abubakar, a former customs chief and vice president.
A Nigerian court Monday threw out a suit brought by three PDP members to try to stop Mr. Jonathan from running in the primaries. Judge Ishaq Bello of the Abuja High Court said the suit alleging that the incumbent president's candidacy breached party rules was premature and should be filed after the primaries.
PDP rules state that power should rotate between the mostly Muslim north and largely Christian south every two years. Mr. Jonathan is from the south.
Meanwhile, Nigerian officials said Monday that gunmen suspected to be part of a radical Muslim sect have attacked a church and killed a policeman in the country's northeast, just weeks after officers were assigned to protect churches in the region.
The Sunday night attack occurred in Maiduguri, where suspected sect members have carried out a series of killings in recent months, including Christmas Eve attacks on churches.
In the central Nigerian city of Jos, relative calm returned after a weekend of rioting in another area plagued by violence between Muslims and Christians. Police quelled a new outbreak of violence on Sunday after arsonists set homes on fire.
Security officials say religious violence killed 11 people in the region on Saturday. Eight people died when Christian youths attacked a vehicle carrying Muslim passengers. Three more died at a political rally that descended into violence.
At least 80 people died in Jos during a wave of Christmas Eve bombing attacks claimed by the radical Islamist group Boko Haram.
Nigerian authorities say the December 24 attacks were intended to inflame tensions between Muslims and Christians before April's presidential election.
Jos is the capital of Plateau State in Nigeria's volatile Middle Belt, where the mostly Muslim north meets the mainly Christian south. Thousands of people have died in violence in and around Jos over the past decade.

Spain's PM Rejects ETA Cease-Fire

Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero is rejecting ETA's permanent cease-fire, saying the armed Basque separatist group's only choice is to disband.

Mr. Zapatero told Spanish television Monday that ETA's offer is no good and that it must take much more forceful and definitive steps. He said there will be no talks with ETA, and he added that, there is no doubt the violence, in time, will stop.

ETA Monday declared what it calls a permanent cease-fire that it says can be internationally verified. The group said it is firmly committed to ending armed confrontation.

But it made no mention of disbanding or giving up its weapons.

ETA has killed more than 800 people in its four-decade campaign for Basque independence in northern Spain and southern France.

Spain, the European Union and the United States all consider ETA a terrorist group.

ETA has been weakened in recent months because of a stepped-up Spanish and French police crackdown and a loss of support by its outlawed political wing, Batasuna.

Batasuna is urging ETA to give up its weapons so the party can be allowed to take part in Basque regional elections.

ETA has declared other cease-fires in the past that did not last more than a few days or several months.

Obasanjo Making Mediation Attempt in Ivory Coast

Former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo was in Ivory Coast Sunday, making a new effort to mediate the country's political crisis.
Officials familiar with the situation say Mr. Obasanjo arrived in the main city of Abidjan on Saturday and held separate talks with incumbent president Laurent Gbagbo and rival Alassane Ouattara.
The officials said more talks were planned for Sunday.
The international community recognizes Mr. Ouattara as the winner of November's presidential election, but Mr. Gbagbo insists that he won the vote and has refused to step down.
African leaders have held several meetings with the incumbent in hopes of convincing him to leave, so far without success.
The West African bloc ECOWAS has threatened to remove Mr. Gbagbo by force unless he cedes power to Mr. Ouattara.
Regional support for Mr. Ouattara weakened slightly Friday when Ghana's president, John Atta Mills, said his country is not taking sides in the standoff and will support any government in Ivory Coast.
Mr. Mills also said he does not support the use of military force to oust Mr. Gbagbo.
Pro-Gbagbo forces continue to keep Mr. Ouattara confined to the Abidjan hotel where he has been for about a month.

Ugandan Wins Africa Rural Connect Contest

Johnstone Baguma's idea focuses on strengthening the capacity of small-scale rural maize farmers in western Uganda

A Ugandan is the grand prize winner of the Africa Rural Connect contest organized last year by the National Peace Corps. Association to solicit ideas on ways to improve the lives of rural farmers in Africa.
Johnstone Baguma is founder and executive director of Toro Development Network, a community-based, non-governmental organization that promotes access to, and strategic use of, information communication technologies for development in western Uganda.
Baguma’s idea focused on strengthening the capacity of small-scale rural maize farmers, particularly on production for urban markets.
He told VOA his organization is grateful for the award which, he notes, will go a long way in helping farmers in western Uganda who, he said, have been exploited for a long time.
“As Toro Development Network, we are planning to continue with this project, especially hoping that farmers who are mainly involved in maize growing, how we can help them improve on their production, how they can be able to market their produce because they have been heavily exploited,” he said.
Baguma also hopes the $12,000 prize will enable his organization to further assist rural farmers manage their post-harvest losses, as well as connect them to prospective urban buyers.
He said his organization wants to use basic communication tools, such as mobile phones, to support rural development.
“We realize that, because of the lack of communication, there is a lot of lagging behind, especially in the agro-business sector, looking at issues of how production can be increased, looking at issues of marketing, farmers were being exploited because they couldn’t know different prices in different areas. So, we mainly focus on how we can promote (the) use of basic communication tools for these farmers. For example, we’re looking at mobile phones to be able to connect with different prospective buyers,” Baguma said.
Baguma said the Toro Development Network is also looking at the use of local FM radio stations in the region to help farmers share knowledge about production and how to market their produce.
He said his project is targeting maize farmers because the maize crop has a multiplier effect.
“The maize crop is a staple food in this region. By the same token, the maize crop is a cash crop. Farmers can actually be able to sell and expand on their income. So, we are looking at food security; we are also looking at expanding the economic status of our farmers,” he said.
Baguma said he hopes international development organizations would emulate the approach of the National Peace Corps. Association by asking for local public input before formulating any development strategy.
“That is very important; allow the people in the communities to express what they feel can work best for them, and I believe that, if this approach is adopted by a number of donor organizations, I think it would be a good approach to enable to realize more benefit,” Baguma said.
Molly Mattessich, manager of online initiatives for the National Peace Corps. Association, said her organization has been impressed by the quality of ideas coming from Africa.
“We think we’ve created a platform for people living in rural Africa to collaborate with Peace Corps. volunteers with different organizations from different countries to develop some of the best ideas. So, we are very proud of giving a voice to people who previously did not have a place to post their ideas,” Mattessich said.

Southern Sudan in Second Day of Independence Referendum

Polls opened Monday for the second day of southern Sudan's historic independence referendum. The week-long poll is expected to bring the region a step closer to becoming the world's newest country.
Voting in the landmark independence referendum began Sunday with witnesses reporting scenes of jubilation at polling centers and strong voter turnout.
The southern Sudanese president, Salva Kiir, cast his vote Sunday in the south's capital of Juba. Kiir said this is the “historic moment” southern Sudan's people have been waiting for.
Voting appears to be proceeding smoothly, though officials say clashes have erupted between Misseriya and Ngok Dinka tribesmen in the disputed oil-producing Abyei region. Tribal leaders say at least 23 people have died in the fighting in recent days.
U.S. President Barack Obama said Sunday the international community is determined that all parties in Sudan live up to their obligations.
The referendum is part of the 2005 peace deal that ended 21 years of war between Sudan's Muslim-majority north and the mainly Christian and animist south.
Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir has pledged to accept the results and help the south regardless of the outcome.
Dignitaries from around the world, including former U.S. president Jimmy Carter and ex-U.N. secretary-general Kofi Annan, are in Sudan to observe the vote.
The north and south still have to resolve a number of issues involving borders, water use, oil revenue and the fate of the Abyei region.
The U.N. Security Council has expressed “deep concern” about the lack of an agreement on Abyei. The region was supposed to hold a separate referendum Sunday to decide whether to join the north or south. But the referendum was put off because of disputes over who would be eligible to vote.